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Glencore in Hope of Talks to Restart the $240B Merger with Rio Tinto as Coal Price Climbs


The on-and-off merger talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto highlight the industry dynamics of strong copper upside with resilient coal demand. The initial ~$260B deal failed in February since Glencore felt Rio Tinto undervalued its copper assets and growth pipeline. With copper prices now surging above $14,000/ton and a massive supply shortfall, the value of Glencore’s copper business should be marked up, while a ~26% increase in coal prices since January further increases its earnings and implied equity value given its position as one of the world’s largest coal producers. Both parties’ ownership in the combined entity is driven by their relative market value. While Rio Tinto’s valuation is tied to iron ore, Glencore benefits from exposure to both rising copper and coal prices, which creates a valuation tailwind on both ends. As iron ore softens on oversupply concerns, Rio Tinto’s relative value drops, while Glencore’s expands, ultimately increasing its leverage in negotiations and pushing its implied stake in the combined company closer to a ~40% level which management has historically targeted. Ironically, the coal business Rio Tinto previously exited to look more ESG friendly may be the catalyst which brings it back to the table. This merger has now become a standoff where LT clean energy goals clash with ST profits from fossil fuels, and neither side is backing down.

Recent M&A Transactions

Metals & Mining

Mar 17, 2026 – The Democratic Republic of Congo is reportedly ready to approve the sale of Chemaf to U.S.-based Virtus Minerals, advancing a strategic minerals partnership between Washington and the African nation. (Mining)

Mar 16, 2026 – Summit Royalties has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Star Royalties in an all-share transaction that will create a combined royalty and streaming company with 50 assets across Canada, the U.S., and Australia. (TipRanks)

Transportation & Logistics

Mar 20, 2026 – Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has filed to acquire half of Sinokor Maritime, which operates a fleet of 78 very large crude carriers. MSC will acquire 50% of Seoul-based Sinokor, with Korean tycoon Ga-Hyun Chung retaining 50%. (FreightWaves)

Mar 18, 2026 – Ardrossan harbor has been taken into public ownership after a deal for it to be bought by the Scottish government’s ferries and ports agency (CMAL) was completed. (BBC)

Mar 18, 2026 – Gama Aviation agreed to acquire UK-based charter flight broker Hunt & Palmer. Hunt & Palmer has been a prominent player in the private flight charter sector since 1986. Gama Aviation, which is active as a charter operator, is adding the business to a portfolio that also includes aircraft management, maintenance, and FBOs. (AviationInternationalNews)

Mar 16, 2026 – Public Storage has agreed to acquire smaller rival National Storage Affiliates in an all-stock deal valued at about $10.5B including debt, the self-storage facilities operator, as it expands ‌in high-growth regions in the United States. (Reuters)

Building Products & Materials

Mar 18, 2026 – SouthernCarlson, a leading distributor of fasteners, tools, and construction supplies, today announced the acquisition of Greenwald Supply Direct. (PRNewswire)

Mar 17, 2026 – Mill Creek Lumber & Supply Company announced that it is finalizing the acquisition of Tulsa Fireplace Supply, Inc., a long-standing Tulsa provider of fireplace, hearth and stone products. (LBMJournal)

Mar 16, 2026 – Trimlite, a manufacturer and value-added distributor of residential doors and door products and a portfolio company of Wynnchurch Capital, L.P., announced the acquisition of Harris Door & Millwork, a distributor of interior and exterior doors. (Wynnchurch)

Energy

Mar 18, 2026 – Constellation Energy said it would sell a portfolio of ‌PJM generation assets to LS Power in a deal valued at $5B, as part of regulatory commitments ​tied to its acquisition of Calpine ​Corporation. (Reuters)

Mar 17, 2026 – Morgan Stanley Investment Management, through investment funds managed by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, its private infrastructure investment platform, announced it has agreed to sell its ownership stake in Thermal Bayonne Holdings, LLC to Jupiter Energy Investor, LLC. (MorganStanley)

Mar 16, 2026 – Stolt-Nielsen Limited (Oslo Børs:SNI), through its subsidiary Stolt-Nielsen Gas Ltd., has announced that it has entered into a share purchase agreement to sell 50% of Avenir LNG Limited to Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha. (GlobeNewswire)

Others

Mar 19, 2026 – 3M is teaming up Bain Capital to buy Madison Fire & Rescue for $1.95B as part of a deal to form a new fire and safety venture. (WSJ)

Mar 15, 2026 – Bain Capital will pay more than $349M to acquire an Australian wealth-management business from local investment manager Perpetual. (WSJ)

Top News Stories

Metals & Mining

Alba exports aluminium via Jeddah, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. CEO Ali Al Baqali said the company is sending 40–60% of its exports through Saudi Arabia. The route involves land transport of about 870 miles to Jeddah. He said this adds land costs, but overall transport costs have not increased significantly. The company is still meeting delivery commitments.

South32 pauses Worsley Alumina operations following an incident at the refinery. Peripheral operations have been paused at the South32-owned Worsley Alumina refinery near Collie, in Western Australia, after a contractor sustained injuries at the site. Emergency services and first aid were administered to the injured 47-year-old worker at the refinery.

EGA reroutes aluminium trade through Oman amid Hormuz disruption. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) will reroute its aluminium exports and raw material imports through Oman’s Sohar port in the coming days, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S.–Brazil critical minerals deal hinges on Brasília’s go-ahead. The United States is awaiting policy clarity from the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil, to advance a bilateral agreement on critical minerals.

China gains as alumina reroutes from the Strait of Hormuz disrupts the Middle East supply. The rerouting of the raw materials away from the Middle East is suggested to be benefiting the Chinese aluminium producers. This is because China is receiving a higher amount of alumina, the precursor refined from bauxite, due to the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran.

South32 pulls the plug on Mozal aluminium smelter operations after power deal impasse. Unable to secure a long-term, affordable electricity supply, South32 has placed the Mozal Aluminium Smelter near Maputo, Mozambique, on care and maintenance.

Mozambique seeks negotiations to keep the Mozal aluminum smelter from complete closure. The Government of Mozambique is seeking negotiations to prevent a permanent shutdown of the Mozal Aluminium Smelter. Owned by South32, Africa’s largest aluminium smelter, Mozal is to suspend operations, owing to unsustainable electricity costs.

Glencore in hope of talks to restart the $240B merger with Rio Tinto as coal price climbs. Earlier this year, the two companies talked about creating $240B mining group. The deal would have combined Glencore’s trading business and copper assets with Rio Tinto’s large-scale mining operations.

Transportation & Logistics

FedEx to shutter 9 New York parcel centers. FedEx Corp. plans to close nine shipping facilities in New York and one in Pennsylvania as its multi-year effort to integrate legacy express and ground delivery operations into one unified surface network enters its final phase.

Trump temporarily suspends Jones Act as energy prices soar. After the war in Iran sent gas and diesel prices soaring, President Donald Trump has temporarily waived the Jones Act, allowing foreign ships to carry crude oil and gas between U.S. ports.

U.S. Postal Service on brink of financial collapse, chief tells Congress. The U.S. Postal Service will be out of cash and unable to deliver mail, and pay vendors and employees, in less than 12 months unless Congress lifts the carrier’s statutory debt limit of $15B and eliminate mandates that handcuff its ability to make money and burden it with uncontrollable expenses.

Wisconsin-based carrier files for chapter 11 protection. Family-owned Sparhawk Trucking, a Wisconsin-based company that the federal government says has 178 power units, has filed for protection under chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code.

Atlas Air switches to Airbus, orders 20 A350 cargo jets. Atlas Air, the world’s largest operator of 747 jumbo jets, by decade’s end will operate non-Boeing aircraft for the first time signing an order that makes it the largest customer for Airbus’s brand-new A350 widebody cargo jet.

Energy

Tesla in talks with Chinese firms to buy $2.9B worth of solar equipment, sources say. Tesla is looking to buy equipment worth $2.9B for manufacturing solar panels and cells from Chinese suppliers including Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, ​as CEO Elon Musk aims to add 100 gigawatts of solar capacity in the United States.

Monroe Energy restarts key units at refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, sources say. At least two key processing units at Monroe Energy’s 190,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, ​went offline before they ​were restarted, people familiar with plant operations ⁠said.

Petrobras refineries to operate at 98.5% of capacity in April, says CEO. President Donald Trump said that he will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs during the Iran war.

Japan to spend nearly $63B in second phase of US investment, Nikkei reports. The International Energy Agency said its member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks, the largest reserves distribution in history, in a bid to bring down crude prices that have soared during the war with Iran.

Cuba partially restores power as President Díaz-Canel vows ‘unyielding resistance’ to U.S. oil blockade. Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel lashed out at the “almost daily” threats from the U.S. and pledged to meet the Trump administration’s move to choke off the island’s fuel supplies with “unyielding resistance.”

Others

Banks ready to put billions to work after regulatory win. After scoring a victory with regulators, lenders are preparing to put billions of dollars in potentially freed-up capital to use. Their top priorities aren’t complicated: make more loans, invest in their businesses, give money back to shareholders and strike deals.

New CEO Josh D’Amaro wants Disney’s flywheel to spin faster. To understand where new Disney chief executive Josh D’Amaro wants to take the 102-year-old company, visit one of its U.S. theme parks Memorial Day weekend.

Australian GPS-Alternative unicorn raises $110M for expansion. An Australian startup that helps aircraft, ships and other vehicles navigate GPS dead zones has raised $110M, hitting Silicon Valley’s prized unicorn status as it seeks to accelerate growth in the U.S. and Europe.

About RJM

RJM & Company is a specialized M&A and capital markets advisory investment bank. We provide boards and management teams of public and private companies with independent advice and expertise in a variety of sectors including road, rail and marine transportation, infrastructure, chemicals, energy, metals and mining, manufacturing, building materials, and other coverage areas of the industrial complex. RJM advises clients on all aspects of transactions including timing, structure, and pricing. RJM originates opportunities and helps negotiate and execute transactions already under evaluation.