Key transactions & industry news Weekly Update 04/18/2025

Metals & Mining

Aluminium prices sink below $2,400 amid US-China tariff clash. Aluminum futures remain under pressure, trading below $2,400 per tonne and holding near their eight-month low of $2,340 hit on April 9. The slump is an after-effect induced by escalating US-China trade tensions that have cast a shadow over global manufacturing. Goldman Sachs revised its aluminum price forecast downward, citing a weaker global economic outlook. The bank now expects aluminum prices to average USD 2,000 per tonne in Q3 2025, down from an earlier forecast of USD 2,650. This adjustment is due to an anticipated global aluminum market surplus of 580,000 tonnes.

Alcoa’s Q1 2025 performance displays stable 26% EBITDA growth amid first phase of tariff pressure. Alcoa’s revenue slipped 3% quarter-over-quarter to $3.37B due to lower alumina and aluminum shipments. Yet, margin expansion was significant. Net income margins jumped to 16.3%, up from 5.8% in Q4 2024, thanks to favourable commodity pricing and the absence of main restructuring costs seen in late 2024. A key challenge in Q1 was the reimposition of US Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum, effective March 12. Alcoa incurred $20M in tariff-related costs, which partially offset aluminum segment gains. Two strategic actions marked the quarter, wherein one was Alcoa’s finalisation of a joint venture with Spain-based IGNIS Equity Holdings to support the restart of its San Ciprián smelter, effective March 31, 2025. The other one was Alcoa’s repositioning of the debt. The global business issued $1B in senior notes via its Australian subsidiary while retiring nearly $890M in existing debt. Looking at Q2 2025, Alcoa projects continued strengthening the alumina segment, expecting to maintain current EBITDA levels.

Q1 2025: Rio Tinto’s operational achievements on point with record-high bauxite production. In Q1 2025, Rio Tinto’s bauxite production reached 15 million tonnes, marking a significant Y-o-Y increase of 11.94% from 13.4 million tonnes and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3% from 15.4 million tonnes. Alumina output was 2 million tonnes, up by 3 per cent Y-o-Y but down by 4% over a quarter. As a reason for growth, Rio Tinto attributed the record-high quarterly bauxite production to Amrun’s operation above nameplate capacity, driven by improved utilisation rates due to the implementation of the Safe Production System. For alumina, the company shared the credit with its 100% capacity acquisition of Queensland Alumina Limited following the Australian Government’s sanctions against Russian entities. Primary aluminum production was 829,000 tonnes in Q1 2025, which remained steady compared to a year ago but slightly dropped by 0.96% from 837,000 tonnes in Q4 2024. The steady output over the year could be attributed to continuous improvements offsetting external challenges that impacted production at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS) and Kitimat. Meanwhile, recycled aluminum output decreased by 11% Y-o-Y but stood 14 per cent higher Q-o-Q, amounting to 66,000 tonnes, due to gradually improving market conditions.

Transportation & Logistics

US plans phased approach to port fees for Chinese ships. The United States announced a multi-phase scheme for port fees on Chinese-linked shipping based on the size of ships. The reset comes after a wave of opposition during public hearings in March from shippers, exporters and other maritime stakeholders to millions of dollars in fees proposed by the United States Trade Representative. The long-term plan also accommodates what is expected to be a years-long ramping up of domestic shipyard capacity. China produces about 1,700 ships per year compared to around five for the U.S. In the details of the USTR action, fees on Chinese vessel owners and operators for the first 180 days as of April 17 will be set at $0. In the first phase, after 180 days, the charge will be $50 per net ton per U.S. voyage, increasing incrementally over the following years up to $140 by April 17, 2028. The fee will be charged up to five times per year, per vessel.

Mack Trucks plans layoffs at Pennsylvania, Maryland factories. Mack Trucks said Thursday it will lay off up to 450 workers from factories in Pennsylvania and Maryland due to the impact of tariffs and other economic factors. The company will cut between 250 to 350 jobs at the Lehigh Valley Operations in Lower Macungie Township, Pennsylvania, over the next 90 days. Mack Trucks will lay off between 50 to 100 workers from its factory in Hagerstown, Maryland, by May 2. This is in addition to 43 people already laid off earlier this year from the Hagerstown facility. “Heavy-duty truck orders continue to be negatively affected by market uncertainty about freight rates and demand, possible regulatory changes, and the impact of tariffs,” Kimberly Pupillo, a spokeswoman for Mack Trucks.

China orders airlines to suspend Boeing jet deliveries amid trade war. China has ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. decision to impose 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. China’s top three airlines – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines had planned to take delivery of 45, 53 and 81 Boeing planes respectively between 2025 and 2027.

Energy

Trump administration kicks off plan for expanded offshore drilling. The U.S. Interior Department on Friday said it would begin taking public input for a new five-year offshore oil and gas leasing program that could include new zones in the Arctic and elsewhere to maximize energy development. President Donald Trump has ordered government agencies to identify ways to increase already record high U.S. oil and gas production, arguing past administrations had unnecessarily curtailed drilling to combat climate change. He had also repealed former President Joe Biden’s efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and along large areas off the U.S. Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Others

Trump studying whether to fire Fed Chair Powell, adviser says. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Friday said President Donald Trump and his team were continuing to study if they could fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a sign that such a move, a matter of great consequence for the central bank’s independence and for global markets, is still an option. “The president and his team will continue to study that matter,” Hassett said at the White House when a reporter asked if “firing Jay Powell is an option in a way that it wasn’t before.”

US labor market stable; tariffs depress single-family homebuilding. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a two-month low last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable in April, though uncertainty around tariffs is making businesses hesitant to boost hiring. President Donald Trump’s import duties are squeezing the housing market, with other data on Thursday showing single-family housing starts plunging to an eight-month low in March, which underscored economists’ expectations that economic growth likely ground to a halt in the first quarter.