Key transactions & industry news Weekly Update 05/16/2025

Metals & Mining

EGA progresses plans to build first new primary aluminum production plant in the US since 1980, in Oklahoma. The plant is expected to have a production capacity of 600,000 tonnes of primary aluminum per year, nearly doubling the United States’ production. Some 85% of the aluminum needs of American industries, from automotive to aviation and construction, are currently met by imports. Construction of EGA’s American primary aluminum plant is expected to begin after a feasibility study and by the end of 2026, with first hot metal by the end of the decade. EGA is expecting to invest ~$4B to develop the project.

Guinea moves to cancel EGA’s mining licence. Guinea has initiated a process to revoke EGA’s mining licence in the West African nation. EGA operates one of the largest bauxite mines in Guinea through its Guinea Alumina Corporation subsidiary. The company said in a response that it continues to “work hard to find a resolution with the government to resume our operations.”

EGA is time ahead with 50% completion of its new aluminum recycling plant. With rising global demand for recycled aluminum, EGA is constructing the UAE’s largest recycling plant in Al Taweelah. As of May 13, 2025, the project is 50% complete—42 days ahead of schedule—and is expected to begin operations in 2026, with a recycling capacity of 170,000 tonnes annually.

Rio Tinto backs low-carbon aluminum future with USD 1.2 billion Isle-Maligne power plant upgrade. Rio Tinto is investing $1.2B to modernize its Isle-Maligne hydroelectric plant in Alma, Quebec, supporting low-carbon aluminum production and securing renewable energy for key facilities. The project, its largest hydro investment since the 1950s, began in May 2025 and will run through 2032.

Aluminum exporters to the US fear losing business by dint of the ’25 tariff. What’s the reality after 3 months of tariff imposition? Canadian smelters, many of whom had tailored their production volumes around US demand forecasts, are now left grappling with surplus inventory and margin erosion. Jean Simard, President and CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, had expressed concerns that these tariffs would adversely affect Canadian aluminum workers and lead to increased prices for American consumers. The tariffs have disrupted the integrated North American aluminum supply chain, cultivated over a century, leading to financial strain on Canadian producers.

Transportation & Logistics

Tariffs temper Canadian National outlook. Canadian National (CN) expects modest freight growth in 2025 despite ongoing uncertainty from U.S.–China trade tensions and the Trump administration’s tariff policies. While one-third of CN’s freight involves U.S. trade, tariffs have softened downstream demand, especially for bauxite and China-related volumes. However, CN maintains its EPS growth target of 10%–15% for the year, with Q1 profits already up 8%. The company projects mid-3% volume growth in 2025, driven by easy year-over-year comparisons, slight industrial production gains, and CN-specific initiatives. Grain volumes remain strong, with CN holding a 50% market share, and international intermodal volumes are growing at the Port of Prince Rupert, where CN has a 65% share. CN sees Prince Rupert as a key growth driver, aiming to shift its U.S. volume mix there from 50% to 70%.

April sees mixed freight trends on path to recovery. April was a mixed bag, with freight rates moving higher year over year but volumes staying pressured, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems. Both datasets did see improvement from March but the outlook remains murky. Cass’ shipments index increased 0.4% in April from March (0.3% higher seasonally adjusted) but was off 3.6% y/y. The y/y decline was the smallest this year. The last positive y/y reading was January 2023. Carriers recently noted that some shippers pulled forward goods ahead of tariffs during the first quarter while others have taken a wait-and-see approach on inventory. Rapidly changing trade policy disrupted normal seasonal freight flows in the quarter and sowed additional doubt into the ultimate duration of an already-protracted freight recession.

US trade with Mexico surges to $77B in March. Mexico was the top U.S. trade partner in March at $77.3B, a 13% year-over-year increase and its highest monthly total in six years. For the first three months of 2025, trade between the U.S. and Mexico totaled $215B, an 8% year-over-year increase. Canada ranked No. 2 for trade with the U.S. at $67.5B in March, while China was third at $51B. Chicago O’Hare International Airport was the No. 1 international U.S. trade gateway in the month, totaling $48.5B. John F. Kennedy International Airport was the second-ranked U.S. gateway for international trade at $41.5B during March. Port Laredo, Texas, was the No. 3-ranked U.S. trade gateway in March, totaling $31.3B in two-way commerce, a 13% year-over-year increase.

Coal, grain keep US rail freight ahead of 2024 levels. Statistics for the week ending May 10 show overall U.S. volume of 495,552 carloads and intermodal units, a 5.7% increase over the same week a year earlier. That includes 222,238 carloads, a 6.2% increase over the corresponding week in 2024, and 273,314 containers and trailers, up 5.4%. Weekly gainers were led by coal, up 21%, and grain, up 20%.

Energy

Oil heads for weekly gain but remains under supply hike pressure. Oil prices edged up on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain on easing U.S.-China trade tensions, although this was somewhat offset by expectations of higher supply from Iran and OPEC+. Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 1.35%, at $65.40 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 94 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.56.

Others

President Donald J. Trump secures $200 billion in new U.S.-UAE deals and accelerates previously committed $1.4 trillion UAE investment. Boeing and GE Aerospace secured a $14.5B commitment from Etihad Airways to invest in 28 American-made Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft powered by GE engines. In Oklahoma, Emirates Global Aluminum will invest to develop a $4B primary aluminum smelter project, one of the first new aluminum smelters in America in 45 years. ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and EOG Resources are partnering with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) for expanded oil and natural gas production valued at $60B that will help lower energy costs.